Preprint out: Enhancing global preparedness during an ongoing pandemic from partial and noisy data

Abstract

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.529 quickly became dominant worldwide. Sustained community transmission favors the proliferation of mutated sub-lineages with pandemic potential, due to cross-national mobility flows, which are responsible for consecutive cases surge worldwide. We show that, in the early stages of an emerging variant, integrating data from national genomic surveillance and global human mobility with large- scale epidemic modeling allows to quantify its pandemic potential, providing quantifiable indicators for pro-active policy interventions. We validate our framework on worldwide spreading variants and gain insights about the pandemic potential of BA.5 and BA.2.75 sub-lineages. Country-level epidemic intelligence is not enough to contrast the pandemic of respiratory pathogens such as SARS- CoV-2 and a scalable integrated approach, i.e. pandemic intelligence, is required to enhance global preparedness.

The preprint is available here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.19.22278981v1.


Pascal Klamser
Pascal Klamser
PostDoc

My research interests include human mobility, collective animal behavior, evolution, phase transitions, disease and opinion dynamics on networks.

Adrian Zachariae
Adrian Zachariae
PhD Student

My research is focussed on the evolution of clonal populations in networks and the interplay of spreading processes and evolutionary dynamics.

Benjamin F. Maier
Benjamin F. Maier
Postdoc

My research interests include the spread of infectious diseases, complex systems, and network theory

Dirk Brockmann
Dirk Brockmann
Director

Director Center Synergy of Systems, Professor Biology of Complex Systems